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Picks for Thursday 29 October

Thursday 29 October

2 of 2 top picks won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 193 of 233 top picks won. Expected about 186.

Trial leagues (2 shown): 1 of 2 won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 67 of 79 trial picks won. Expected about 64.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

FrosinoneLecce51

25' Cichella, 45+1' Calò (pen), 59' Raimondo, 72' Birligea, 82' Monteiro, 90+4' Birligea

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

FiorentinaAtalanta22

41' Ketelaere, 53' Njie, 61' Mário, 74' Zalewski

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Trial leagues (2)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 76% · Price then 1.24

Atletico-MGCruzeiro01

4' Jorge

· Serie A, Brazil

New league for us: our record here is still building (12 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.22

Vasco DA GamaFlamengo14

10' Pedro, 15' Lescano, 41' Pedro, 53' Lino, 85' Lino

· Serie A, Brazil

New league for us: our record here is still building (12 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Serie A, Italy

Frosinone v Lecce

Final score Frosinone 5, Lecce 1.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Frosinone's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Frosinone win 40%, Draw 26%, Lecce win 33%.

Why this pick

Frosinone host Lecce in the Serie A, Italy.

Our model gives a 76% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 84%.

The model expects Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Lecce 1.3.

6 of Frosinone's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Lecce's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Frosinone have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.2 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Lecce have scored 1.0 goals a game and conceded 1.2 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Wed 28 Oct, 20:05 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Wed 28 Oct, 20:05 GMT. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.