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Picks for Thursday 29 October

Thursday 29 October

2 of 2 top picks won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 193 of 233 top picks won. Expected about 186.

Trial leagues (2 shown): 1 of 2 won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 67 of 79 trial picks won. Expected about 64.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

FrosinoneLecce51

25' Cichella, 45+1' Calò (pen), 59' Raimondo, 72' Birligea, 82' Monteiro, 90+4' Birligea

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

FiorentinaAtalanta22

41' Ketelaere, 53' Njie, 61' Mário, 74' Zalewski

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Trial leagues (2)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 76% · Price then 1.24

Atletico-MGCruzeiro01

4' Jorge

· Serie A, Brazil

New league for us: our record here is still building (12 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.22

Vasco DA GamaFlamengo14

10' Pedro, 15' Lescano, 41' Pedro, 53' Lino, 85' Lino

· Serie A, Brazil

New league for us: our record here is still building (12 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Serie A, Brazil

New league for us: our record here is still building (12 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo

Final score Vasco DA Gama 1, Flamengo 4.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.22

5 of Flamengo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Vasco DA Gama win 23%, Draw 23%, Flamengo win 55%.

Why this pick

Vasco DA Gama host Flamengo in the Serie A, Brazil.

Our model gives a 79% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 77%.

The model expects Vasco DA Gama to score 1.1 goals and Flamengo 2.0.

4 of Vasco DA Gama's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Flamengo's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Vasco DA Gama have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Flamengo have scored 1.6 goals a game and conceded 0.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Wed 28 Oct, 20:05 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Wed 28 Oct, 20:05 GMT. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.