PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· South Korea - K League 1
Final score Gangwon FC 2, Bucheon FC 1995 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Gangwon FC win 36%, Draw 32%, Bucheon FC 1995 win 32%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchGangwon FC host Bucheon FC 1995 in the K League 1, South Korea.
Our model gives Gangwon FC a 36% chance of winning, a draw 32% and Bucheon FC 1995 32%.
The model expects Gangwon FC to score 1.1 goals and Bucheon FC 1995 1.0.
Gangwon FC have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:21 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Gangwon FC 37% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the K League 1, before kick-off.
Gangwon FC sit 5th with 43 points; Bucheon FC 1995 sit 11th with 32. A gap of 17 in goal difference, in favour of Gangwon FC.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: May 2016 to August 2026.
Average goals 2.0 (Gangwon FC 0.6, Bucheon FC 1995 1.4). Draws 14%, both teams scored 29%, over 2.5 goals 43%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Gangwon FC at home and Bucheon FC 1995 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Gangwon FC | Bucheon FC 1995 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 11th |
| Points per game | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | 1.00 | 5 | 6 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 3 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 1.20 | 6 | 6 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 1.00 | 3 | 5 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Away, last 10 (8) | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 0.88 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 |
| 11 |
| 8 |
| 38 |
| 28 |
| +10 |
| 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 40 |
| 8 | Incheon United | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 39 |
| 9 | FC Anyang | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |