PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Georgia - Liga 3
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Gardabani win 40%, Draw 24%, Kolkheti Khobi win 37%.
Gardabani host Kolkheti Khobi in the Liga 3, Georgia.
Our model gives Gardabani a 40% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Kolkheti Khobi 37%.
The model expects Gardabani to score 1.6 goals and Kolkheti Khobi 1.5.
Gardabani have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Kolkheti Khobi have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:30 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Gardabani 40% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga 3, before kick-off.
Gardabani sit 13th with 16 points; Kolkheti Khobi sit 12th with 21. A gap of 18 in goal difference, in favour of Kolkheti Khobi.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 53 | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 13 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: June 2025 to April 2026.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Gardabani at home and Kolkheti Khobi away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 35 | -28 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 10 | 1.00 | 1 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Gardabani | Kolkheti Khobi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 12th |
| Points per game | 0.73 | 0.95 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 63 | 11 | +52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 14 | +40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 39 |
| 5 | WIT Georgia | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 38 |
| 6 | Gonio | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 34 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 53 | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 13 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 54 | -41 | 13 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 56 | -38 | 11 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 10 |
| -4 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 7 | 0.70 | 1 | 5 |
|---|