PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Romania - Liga III - Serie 7
Final score Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 5, Progresul Pecica 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii win 57%, Draw 22%, Progresul Pecica win 21%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchGhiroda şi Giarmata Vii host Progresul Pecica in the Liga III - Serie 7, Romania.
Our model gives Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii a 57% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Progresul Pecica 21%.
The model expects Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii to score 2.0 goals and Progresul Pecica 1.2.
Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Progresul Pecica have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:26 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 58% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga III - Serie 7, before kick-off.
Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii sit 8th with 9 points; Progresul Pecica sit 6th with 10. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Progresul Pecica.
| # | Team | P | W | D |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: October 2020 to April 2026.
Average goals 2.6 (Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii 1.2, Progresul Pecica 1.4). Draws 17%, both teams scored 50%, over 2.5 goals 42%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii at home and Progresul Pecica away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | Progresul Pecica |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 6th |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.80 | 2.30 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 5 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 11 |
| 6 | Progresul Pecica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Viitorul Arad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIL Blaj | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 2 | Unirea Sântana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Timişul Şag | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Cetate Deva | 7 | 3 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 | 1.20 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 20 | 2.00 | 4 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 10 | 1.00 | 2 | 4 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 18 |
| 12 |
| +6 |
| 12 |
| 5 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 11 |
| 6 | Progresul Pecica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Viitorul Arad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 2 |