PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Croatia - HNL
Final score HNK Gorica 1, Rudes 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: HNK Gorica win 60%, Draw 23%, Rudes win 17%.
HNK Gorica host Rudes in the HNL, Croatia.
Our model gives HNK Gorica a 60% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Rudes 17%.
The model expects HNK Gorica to score 1.9 goals and Rudes 1.0.
HNK Gorica have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Rudes have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchContext onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the HNL, before kick-off.
HNK Gorica sit 9th with 5 points; Rudes sit 10th with 4. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of HNK Gorica.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 4 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then HNK Gorica at home and Rudes away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
HNK Gorica at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Rudes away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | HNK Gorica | Rudes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 10th |
| Points per game | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 16 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 16 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 15 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 5 |
| 10 | Rudes | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 4 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 12 |
| -4 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|