PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Sweden - Allsvenskan
Final score IFK Goteborg 1, Vasteras SK FK 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: IFK Goteborg win 50%, Draw 25%, Vasteras SK FK win 25%.
IFK Goteborg host Vasteras SK FK in the Allsvenskan, Sweden.
Our model gives IFK Goteborg a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Vasteras SK FK 25%.
The model expects IFK Goteborg to score 1.7 goals and Vasteras SK FK 1.2.
IFK Goteborg have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Allsvenskan, before kick-off.
IFK Goteborg sit 9th with 32 points; Vasteras SK FK sit 6th with 35. A gap of 9 in goal difference, in favour of Vasteras SK FK.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BK Hacken | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 36 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 35 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 33 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Gais | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 30 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then IFK Goteborg at home and Vasteras SK FK away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
IFK Goteborg at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Vasteras SK FK away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | IFK Goteborg | Vasteras SK FK |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Points per game | 1.45 | 1.59 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +29 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +26 | 41 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 37 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 36 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 35 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 33 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Gais | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 27 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 22 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 14 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| +6 |
| 10 |
| 2.00 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | 1.67 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|