PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Poland - Central Youth League
Final score Jagiellonia U19 0, Górnik Zabrze U19 4.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Jagiellonia U19 win 40%, Draw 21%, Górnik Zabrze U19 win 39%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchJagiellonia U19 host Górnik Zabrze U19 in the Central Youth League, Poland.
Our model gives Jagiellonia U19 a 40% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Górnik Zabrze U19 39%.
The model expects Jagiellonia U19 to score 1.8 goals and Górnik Zabrze U19 1.7.
Jagiellonia U19 have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Górnik Zabrze U19 have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:24 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 8% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Jagiellonia U19 40% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Central Youth League, before kick-off.
Jagiellonia U19 sit 5th with 14 points; Górnik Zabrze U19 sit 10th with 11. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Jagiellonia U19; Jagiellonia U19 have played 1 fewer.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2023 to May 2026.
Average goals 4.1 (Jagiellonia U19 1.9, Górnik Zabrze U19 2.3). Draws 0%, both teams scored 57%, over 2.5 goals 86%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Jagiellonia U19 at home and Górnik Zabrze U19 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Jagiellonia U19 | Górnik Zabrze U19 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 10th |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.22 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Jagiellonia U19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Arkonia U19 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 20 |
| 2 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 | 1.40 | 4 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 15 | 1.50 | 2 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 4 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 18 | 1.80 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 18 |
| 13 |
| +5 |
| 14 |
| 5 | Jagiellonia U19 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 |
| 8 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Arkonia U19 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Lech Poznań U19 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Korona Kielce U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 |