PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Malaysia - FA Cup
Final score Johor Darul Takzim FC 4, Penang 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Johor Darul Takzim FC win 76%, Draw 13%, Penang win 10%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchJohor Darul Takzim FC host Penang in the FA Cup, Malaysia.
Our model gives Johor Darul Takzim FC a 76% chance of winning, a draw 13% and Penang 10%.
The model expects Johor Darul Takzim FC to score 3.1 goals and Penang 1.4.
Johor Darul Takzim FC have won 3 of their last 3 league matches; Penang have won 2 of 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:23 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Johor Darul Takzim FC 74% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
No league table holds both teams for this fixture, so the competition context is shown instead.
Malaysia - FA Cup: Quarter-finals.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: May 2016 to September 2026.
Average goals 3.7 (Johor Darul Takzim FC 3.4, Penang 0.3). Draws 5%, both teams scored 26%, over 2.5 goals 63%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Johor Darul Takzim FC at home and Penang away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Johor Darul Takzim FC | Penang |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points per game | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 5.30 | 1.10 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 |
Points per game from the last 10 matches (no league table).
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 13 | 2.60 | 3 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 4 | +49 | 28 | 2.80 | 7 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1 | +22 | 13 | 2.60 | 4 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 4 | +43 | 26 | 2.60 | 8 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 4 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 | 1.22 | 4 | 5 |