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Picks for Monday 19 October

Monday 19 October

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Since 9 Oct: 109 of 133 top picks won. Expected about 106.

Trial leagues (3 shown): 2 of 3 won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 16 of 20 trial picks won. Expected about 16.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

No picks among the top picks.

Trial leagues (3)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.04

Short price: returns 4p for every £1 if it wins

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap21

43' unuvar, 45' Warmerdam, 79' Monserrate

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Jong PSV U21Dordrecht01

12' Bie (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.16

Jong UtrechtRoda12

44' Ghaddari, 57' Dorenbosch, 88' Hurk

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

Jong Ajax v De Graafschap

Final score Jong Ajax 2, De Graafschap 1.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.04

Short price: returns 4p for every £1 if it wins

Each of De Graafschap's last 5 away matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Jong Ajax win 34%, Draw 22%, De Graafschap win 44%.

Why this pick

Jong Ajax host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.

Our model gives an 84% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 89%.

The model expects Jong Ajax to score 1.6 goals and De Graafschap 2.0.

4 of Jong Ajax's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of De Graafschap's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Jong Ajax have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 2.6 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, De Graafschap have scored 1.2 goals a game and conceded 2.2 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sun 18 Oct, 20:12 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sun 18 Oct, 20:12 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.