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Picks for Monday 19 October

Monday 19 October

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Since 9 Oct: 109 of 133 top picks won. Expected about 106.

Trial leagues (3 shown): 2 of 3 won

Expected about 2 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 16 of 20 trial picks won. Expected about 16.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

No picks among the top picks.

Trial leagues (3)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.04

Short price: returns 4p for every £1 if it wins

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap21

43' unuvar, 45' Warmerdam, 79' Monserrate

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Jong PSV U21Dordrecht01

12' Bie (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.16

Jong UtrechtRoda12

44' Ghaddari, 57' Dorenbosch, 88' Hurk

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht

Final score Jong PSV U21 0, Dordrecht 1.The pick lost.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Jong PSV U21's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Jong PSV U21 win 56%, Draw 21%, Dordrecht win 23%.

Why this pick

Jong PSV U21 host Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.

Our model gives an 82% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.

The model expects Jong PSV U21 to score 2.1 goals and Dordrecht 1.2.

6 of Jong PSV U21's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Dordrecht's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Jong PSV U21 have scored 1.8 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Dordrecht have scored 1.0 goals a game and conceded 2.8 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sun 18 Oct, 20:12 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sun 18 Oct, 20:12 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.