PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
Final score Jong Ajax 0, VVV Venlo 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Jong Ajax win 35%, Draw 23%, VVV Venlo win 42%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchJong Ajax host VVV Venlo in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives Jong Ajax a 35% chance of winning, a draw 23% and VVV Venlo 42%.
The model expects Jong Ajax to score 1.7 goals and VVV Venlo 1.9.
Jong Ajax have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; VVV Venlo have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Eerste Divisie, before kick-off.
Jong Ajax sit 17th with 8 points; VVV Venlo sit 3rd with 18. A gap of 18 in goal difference, in favour of VVV Venlo.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Jong Ajax at home and VVV Venlo away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Jong Ajax | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 0.89 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | – |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 | 1.33 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
Jong Ajax at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
VVV Venlo away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +1 |
| 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |