PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Japan - J1 League
Final score Kashima 2, Gamba Osaka 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Kashima win 56%, Draw 25%, Gamba Osaka win 20%.
Kashima host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League, Japan.
Our model gives Kashima a 56% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Gamba Osaka 20%.
The model expects Kashima to score 1.8 goals and Gamba Osaka 1.1.
Kashima have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Gamba Osaka have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:27 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Kashima 56% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the J1 League, before kick-off.
Kashima sit 8th with 13 points; Gamba Osaka sit 16th with 6. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Kashima.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2012 to October 2025.
Average goals 2.5 (Kashima 1.6, Gamba Osaka 0.9). Draws 25%, both teams scored 50%, over 2.5 goals 50%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Kashima at home and Gamba Osaka away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 19 | 1.90 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 27 | 2.70 | 5 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Kashima | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 16th |
| Points per game | 1.63 | 0.75 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.60 | 1.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| -7 |
| 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 12 |
| 7 |
| +5 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 12 | 1.20 | 3 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 13 | 1.30 | 3 | 3 |
|---|