PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Japan - J1 League
Final score Kashiwa Reysol 4, Vissel Kobe 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Kashiwa Reysol win 36%, Draw 27%, Vissel Kobe win 37%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchKashiwa Reysol host Vissel Kobe in the J1 League, Japan.
Our model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 36% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Vissel Kobe 37%.
The model expects Kashiwa Reysol to score 1.4 goals and Vissel Kobe 1.4.
Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Vissel Kobe have won 5 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:27 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Kashiwa Reysol 36% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the J1 League, before kick-off.
Kashiwa Reysol sit 2nd with 18 points; Vissel Kobe sit 1st with 19. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Vissel Kobe.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2012 to September 2025.
Average goals 2.6 (Kashiwa Reysol 1.5, Vissel Kobe 1.1). Draws 21%, both teams scored 61%, over 2.5 goals 43%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Kashiwa Reysol at home and Vissel Kobe away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Kashiwa Reysol | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 1st |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.38 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 1 |
| Vissel Kobe |
| 8 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 5 |
| +7 |
| 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 19 | 1.90 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 19 | 1.90 | 2 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 15 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 25 | 2.50 | 4 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 17 | 1.89 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 21 |
| 10 |
| +11 |
| 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |