PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Ecuador - Liga Pro
Final score Libertad 3, Leones del Norte 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Libertad win 49%, Draw 29%, Leones del Norte win 22%.
Libertad host Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro, Ecuador.
Our model gives Libertad a 49% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Leones del Norte 22%.
The model expects Libertad to score 1.4 goals and Leones del Norte 0.9.
Libertad have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Leones del Norte have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga Pro, before kick-off.
Libertad sit 7th with 44 points; Leones del Norte sit 8th with 40. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Libertad.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 44 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 40 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Libertad at home and Leones del Norte away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Libertad at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Leones del Norte away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Libertad | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 8th |
| Points per game | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +23 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 44 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa SC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Emelec | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 29 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 24 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| -1 |
| 5 |
| 1.00 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|