PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Spain - La Liga
Final score Malaga 1, Espanyol 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Malaga win 32%, Draw 28%, Espanyol win 40%.
Malaga host Espanyol in the La Liga, Spain.
Our model gives Malaga a 32% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Espanyol 40%.
The model expects Malaga to score 1.2 goals and Espanyol 1.3.
Malaga have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Espanyol have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the La Liga, before kick-off.
Malaga sit 20th with 3 points; Espanyol sit 15th with 7. A gap of 9 in goal difference, in favour of Espanyol.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Malaga at home and Espanyol away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Malaga at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Espanyol away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Malaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 15th |
| Points per game | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 8 |
| -2 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|