PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Georgia - Liga 3
Final score Margveti 2006 0, Guria 4.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Margveti 2006 win 19%, Draw 23%, Guria win 58%.
Margveti 2006 host Guria in the Liga 3, Georgia.
Our model gives Margveti 2006 a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Guria 58%.
The model expects Margveti 2006 to score 1.2 goals and Guria 2.0.
Margveti 2006 have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Guria have won 6 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:31 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga 3, before kick-off.
Margveti 2006 sit 10th with 30 points; Guria sit 1st with 51. A gap of 57 in goal difference, in favour of Guria.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 63 | 11 | +52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 14 | +40 | 49 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 28 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Insufficient historical data: fewer than 3 meetings.
Record shown: April 2026.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Margveti 2006 at home and Guria away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 20 | 2.00 | 5 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 | 1.60 | 3 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Margveti 2006 | Guria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.36 | 2.32 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.20 | 2.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 7 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 63 | 11 | +52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 14 | +40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 39 |
| 5 | WIT Georgia | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 38 |
| 6 | Gonio | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 34 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 53 | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 13 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 54 | -41 | 13 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 56 | -38 | 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| +16 |
| 15 |
| 3.00 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 4 | +25 | 24 | 2.40 | 7 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 19 | 2.11 | 3 | 1 |
|---|