PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara
Final score Mbeya City 1, Kagera Sugar 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Mbeya City win 55%, Draw 27%, Kagera Sugar win 18%.
Mbeya City host Kagera Sugar in the Ligi kuu Bara, Tanzania.
Our model gives Mbeya City a 55% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Kagera Sugar 18%.
The model expects Mbeya City to score 1.6 goals and Kagera Sugar 0.9.
Mbeya City have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Kagera Sugar have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligi kuu Bara, before kick-off.
Mbeya City sit 6th with 10 points; Kagera Sugar sit 16th with 2. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of Mbeya City.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 2 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Mbeya City at home and Kagera Sugar away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 3 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | 3 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Mbeya City at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Kagera Sugar away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 16th |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Namungo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 12 |
| -7 |
| 2 |
| 0.40 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|