PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Ukraine - Persha Liga
Final score Metal Kharkiv 2, Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Metal Kharkiv win 43%, Draw 28%, Viktoriya Mykolaivka win 29%.
Metal Kharkiv host Viktoriya Mykolaivka in the Persha Liga, Ukraine.
Our model gives Metal Kharkiv a 43% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Viktoriya Mykolaivka 29%.
The model expects Metal Kharkiv to score 1.3 goals and Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1.0.
Metal Kharkiv have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Viktoriya Mykolaivka have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:25 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Metal Kharkiv 41% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Persha Liga, before kick-off.
Metal Kharkiv sit 8th with 14 points; Viktoriya Mykolaivka sit 1st with 20. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Viktoriya Mykolaivka.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Oleksandria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2025 to September 2026.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Metal Kharkiv at home and Viktoriya Mykolaivka away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 17 | 1.70 | 5 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (8) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 | 2.13 | 3 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Metal Kharkiv | Viktoriya Mykolaivka |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Oleksandria | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | Prykarpattia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Yarud Mariupol' | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Metal Kharkiv | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | UCSA | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Polissya II | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 5 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| -3 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 17 | 1.70 | 4 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | 3 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 | 1.70 | 5 | 4 |
|---|