PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Croatia - First NL
Final score Mladost Ždralovi 2, HNK Cibalia 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Mladost Ždralovi win 32%, Draw 31%, HNK Cibalia win 37%.
Mladost Ždralovi host HNK Cibalia in the First NL, Croatia.
Our model gives Mladost Ždralovi a 32% chance of winning, a draw 31% and HNK Cibalia 37%.
The model expects Mladost Ždralovi to score 1.0 goals and HNK Cibalia 1.1.
Mladost Ždralovi have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; HNK Cibalia have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First NL, before kick-off.
Mladost Ždralovi sit 6th with 11 points; HNK Cibalia sit 3rd with 13. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of HNK Cibalia.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Mladost Ždralovi at home and HNK Cibalia away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 3 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 1.67 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Mladost Ždralovi at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
HNK Cibalia away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Mladost Ždralovi | HNK Cibalia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 9 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| +2 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | 3 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|