PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Bangladesh - Premier League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Mohammedan Dhaka win 55%, Draw 25%, Arambagh win 19%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchMohammedan Dhaka host Arambagh in the Premier League, Bangladesh.
Our model gives Mohammedan Dhaka a 55% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Arambagh 19%.
The model expects Mohammedan Dhaka to score 1.7 goals and Arambagh 1.0.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:23 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 9% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Mohammedan Dhaka 54% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Mohammedan Dhaka sit 5th with 23 points; Arambagh sit 9th with 14. A gap of 23 in goal difference, in favour of Mohammedan Dhaka.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2016 to October 2026.
Average goals 2.9 (Mohammedan Dhaka 1.9, Arambagh 0.9). Draws 31%, both teams scored 54%, over 2.5 goals 62%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Mohammedan Dhaka at home and Arambagh away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Mohammedan Dhaka | Arambagh |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 9th |
| Points per game | 1.28 | 0.78 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.20 | 0.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.90 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 44 | -31 | 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 18 | +24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 15 | +22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 21 | 2.10 | 4 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 15 | 1.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 | 0.70 | 2 | 5 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 | 0.60 | 2 | 5 |
| 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 44 | -31 | 10 |