PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta
Final score MOIK 3, Mingəçevir 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: MOIK win 31%, Draw 25%, Mingəçevir win 44%.
MOIK host Mingəçevir in the Birinci Dasta, Azerbaijan.
Our model gives MOIK a 31% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Mingəçevir 44%.
The model expects MOIK to score 1.2 goals and Mingəçevir 1.4.
MOIK have won 1 of their last 3 league matches; Mingəçevir have won 0 of 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:33 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave MOIK 30% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Birinci Dasta, before kick-off.
MOIK sit 5th with 4 points; Mingəçevir sit 8th with 1. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of MOIK.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Karvan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: October 2011 to May 2026.
Average goals 3.1 (MOIK 1.9, Mingəçevir 1.2). Draws 13%, both teams scored 52%, over 2.5 goals 70%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then MOIK at home and Mingəçevir away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | 1.10 | 2 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 | 1.78 | 2 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | MOIK | Mingəçevir |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 8th |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # |
|---|
| Team |
|---|
| P |
|---|
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
| 4 | Karvan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 10 |
| -3 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 | 1.30 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 | 1.22 | 3 | 2 |
|---|