PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Malta - Premier League
Final score Mosta 2, Birzebbuga 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Mosta win 44%, Draw 27%, Birzebbuga win 30%.
Mosta host Birzebbuga in the Premier League, Malta.
Our model gives Mosta a 44% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Birzebbuga 30%.
The model expects Mosta to score 1.5 goals and Birzebbuga 1.3.
Mosta have won 3 of their last 5 league matches; Birzebbuga have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Mosta sit 6th with 10 points; Birzebbuga sit 12th with 0. A gap of 15 in goal difference, in favour of Mosta; Mosta have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Mosta | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sliema Wanderers | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 0 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Mosta at home and Birzebbuga away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Mosta at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Birzebbuga away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Mosta | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 12th |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 6) | 1.40 | 0.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 6) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floriana | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | Birkirkara | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Mosta | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Sliema Wanderers | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Balzan FC | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Hibernians | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 11 |
| -10 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 5 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|