PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Burundi - Ligue A
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Musongati win 47%, Draw 33%, Le Messager Ngozi win 20%.
Musongati host Le Messager Ngozi in the Ligue A, Burundi.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Musongati a 47% chance of winning, a draw 33% and Le Messager Ngozi 20%.
The model expects Musongati to score 1.1 goals and Le Messager Ngozi 0.7.
Musongati have won 1 of their last 5 league matches; Le Messager Ngozi have won 3 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligue A, before kick-off.
Musongati sit 13th with 4 points; Le Messager Ngozi sit 4th with 10. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Le Messager Ngozi; Musongati have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Musongati at home and Le Messager Ngozi away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Musongati | Le Messager Ngozi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 4th |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.50 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 4) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 4) | 1.40 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 3 | Aigle Noir | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Ngozi City | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Musongati | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Inter Star | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 2 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Aigle Noir | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 4 |
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 | 2.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 | 2.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
Musongati at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Le Messager Ngozi away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +3 |
| 10 |
| 5 | Ngozi City | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Rukinzo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 8 |
| 7 | Vital'O | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Olympic Star | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Flambeau du Centre | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Kayanza United | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Bumamuru | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Musongati | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Inter Star | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Panthere Noir | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Young Star | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 1 |