PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
Final score NAC Breda 1, MVV 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: NAC Breda win 60%, Draw 20%, MVV win 20%.
NAC Breda host MVV in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives NAC Breda a 60% chance of winning, a draw 20% and MVV 20%.
The model expects NAC Breda to score 2.3 goals and MVV 1.4.
NAC Breda have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; MVV have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Eerste Divisie, before kick-off.
NAC Breda sit 9th with 14 points; MVV sit 5th with 16. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of NAC Breda.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then NAC Breda at home and MVV away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
NAC Breda at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
MVV away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | NAC Breda | MVV |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 5th |
| Points per game | 1.56 | 1.78 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 15 |
| -10 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|