PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Brazil - Copa Santa Catarina
Final score Nação 0, Marcílio Dias 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Nação win 21%, Draw 21%, Marcílio Dias win 58%.
Nação host Marcílio Dias in the Copa Santa Catarina, Brazil.
Our model gives Nação a 21% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Marcílio Dias 58%.
The model expects Nação to score 1.4 goals and Marcílio Dias 2.2.
Nação have won 0 of their last 5 league matches; Marcílio Dias have won 3 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Copa Santa Catarina, before kick-off.
Nação sit 9th with 2 points; Marcílio Dias sit 1st with 10. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Marcílio Dias.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Nação | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 2 |
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Nação at home and Marcílio Dias away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Nação at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Marcílio Dias away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Nação | Marcílio Dias |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Points per game | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Nação | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 2 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 9 |
| +6 |
| 10 |
| 2.00 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|