PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Uzbekistan - Super League
Final score Nasaf 2, Dinamo Samarqand 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Nasaf win 53%, Draw 25%, Dinamo Samarqand win 22%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchNasaf host Dinamo Samarqand in the Super League, Uzbekistan.
Our model gives Nasaf a 53% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Dinamo Samarqand 22%.
The model expects Nasaf to score 1.7 goals and Dinamo Samarqand 1.1.
Nasaf have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Dinamo Samarqand have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Super League, before kick-off.
Nasaf sit 6th with 34 points; Dinamo Samarqand sit 8th with 30. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Nasaf.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Nasaf at home and Dinamo Samarqand away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Nasaf | Dinamo Samarqand |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 8th |
| Points per game | 1.55 | 1.36 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 5 | Olmaliq | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 34 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv | 22 | – |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 9 | 1.50 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
Nasaf at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Dinamo Samarqand away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +8 |
| 35 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 34 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Sogdiana | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Surkhon | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Qizilqum | 21 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 21 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 4 |