PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa
Final score Neftchi Baku 0, Sabah FA 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Neftchi Baku win 33%, Draw 26%, Sabah FA win 41%.
Neftchi Baku host Sabah FA in the Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan.
Our model gives Neftchi Baku a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sabah FA 41%.
The model expects Neftchi Baku to score 1.4 goals and Sabah FA 1.5.
Neftchi Baku have won 5 of their last 6 league matches; Sabah FA have won 5 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premyer Liqa, before kick-off.
Neftchi Baku sit 1st with 15 points; Sabah FA sit 2nd with 15. They are level on goal difference; Neftchi Baku have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Neftchi Baku at home and Sabah FA away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 | 2.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 |
Neftchi Baku at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sabah FA away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Neftchi Baku | Sabah FA |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 5) | 0.83 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 11 |
| 5 | Zira | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Şamaxı FK | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Kapaz | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Imisli FK | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Qabala | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Safa Baku | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 11 | Sumqayıt | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Araz | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| +13 |
| 15 |
| 3.00 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | 4 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|