PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Ukraine - Druha Liga
Final score Nyva Ternopil II 0, Vilkhivtsi 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Nyva Ternopil II win 26%, Draw 23%, Vilkhivtsi win 51%.
Nyva Ternopil II host Vilkhivtsi in the Druha Liga, Ukraine.
Our model gives Nyva Ternopil II a 26% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Vilkhivtsi 51%.
The model expects Nyva Ternopil II to score 1.2 goals and Vilkhivtsi 1.7.
Nyva Ternopil II have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Vilkhivtsi have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:35 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 8% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Nyva Ternopil II 24% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Druha Liga, before kick-off.
Nyva Ternopil II sit 6th with 9 points; Vilkhivtsi sit 5th with 11. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Vilkhivtsi.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Vilkhivtsi | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 6 | Oleksandria II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2024 to August 2026.
Average goals 3.3 (Nyva Ternopil II 1.3, Vilkhivtsi 2.0). Draws 0%, both teams scored 50%, over 2.5 goals 67%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Nyva Ternopil II at home and Vilkhivtsi away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 9 | 0.90 | 2 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 | 0.90 | 2 | 4 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Nyva Ternopil II | Vilkhivtsi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 5th |
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.30 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 20 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Lozova | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 | Atlet | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
| 4 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Vilkhivtsi | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 9 |
| 6 | Oleksandria II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Trostianets | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Penuel | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 7 |
| -2 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 | 2.20 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 | 1.89 | 2 | 1 |
|---|