PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Portugal - Segunda Liga
Final score Penafiel 1, AVS 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Penafiel win 49%, Draw 29%, AVS win 22%.
Penafiel host AVS in the Segunda Liga, Portugal.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Penafiel a 49% chance of winning, a draw 29% and AVS 22%.
The model expects Penafiel to score 1.4 goals and AVS 0.9.
Penafiel have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; AVS have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Segunda Liga, before kick-off.
Penafiel sit 2nd with 13 points; AVS sit 12th with 6. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Penafiel.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Penafiel at home and AVS away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Penafiel | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 12th |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Farense | 6 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 13 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 | 2.17 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
Penafiel at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
AVS away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +6 |
| 11 |
| 5 | Vizela | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Benfica B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Academica | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 1 |