PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· San Marino - Campionato
Final score Pennarossa 1, Folgore 5.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Pennarossa win 13%, Draw 19%, Folgore win 68%.
Pennarossa host Folgore in the Campionato, San Marino.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Pennarossa a 13% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Folgore 68%.
The model expects Pennarossa to score 1.1 goals and Folgore 2.4.
Pennarossa have won 1 of their last 4 league matches; Folgore have won 4 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Campionato, before kick-off.
Pennarossa sit 14th with 3 points; Folgore sit 1st with 12. A gap of 18 in goal difference, in favour of Folgore.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Pennarossa at home and Folgore away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Pennarossa | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 1st |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 4.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | – |
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
Pennarossa at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Folgore away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +9 |
| 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 2 |