PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Wales - Premier League
Final score Penybont 3, Barry Town 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Penybont win 45%, Draw 26%, Barry Town win 28%.
Penybont host Barry Town in the Premier League, Wales.
Our model gives Penybont a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Barry Town 28%.
The model expects Penybont to score 1.6 goals and Barry Town 1.2.
Penybont have won 5 of their last 6 league matches; Barry Town have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Penybont sit 3rd with 27 points; Barry Town sit 4th with 25. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Penybont.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 23 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Penybont at home and Barry Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 | 2.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 | 2.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Penybont at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Barry Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Penybont | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.08 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 2 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 10 |
| 12 |
| -2 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|