PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Indonesia - Liga 1
Final score Persik Kediri 2, Persepam Madura Utd 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Persik Kediri win 42%, Draw 25%, Persepam Madura Utd win 34%.
Persik Kediri host Persepam Madura Utd in the Liga 1, Indonesia.
Our model gives Persik Kediri a 42% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Persepam Madura Utd 34%.
The model expects Persik Kediri to score 1.5 goals and Persepam Madura Utd 1.2.
Persik Kediri have won 1 of their last 3 league matches; Persepam Madura Utd have won 3 of 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:21 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Persik Kediri 43% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga 1, before kick-off.
Persik Kediri sit 11th with 4 points; Persepam Madura Utd sit 2nd with 9. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of Persepam Madura Utd.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Persepam Madura Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Persija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: November 2021 to April 2026.
Average goals 2.6 (Persik Kediri 1.3, Persepam Madura Utd 1.4). Draws 9%, both teams scored 45%, over 2.5 goals 55%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Persik Kediri at home and Persepam Madura Utd away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 | 1.30 | 3 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Persik Kediri | Persepam Madura Utd |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 2nd |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| -2 |
| 2 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Persepam Madura Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Persija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Bali United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Pusamania Borneo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Arema FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Persita | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | Garudayaksa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Persijap | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Java United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | -1 |
| 18 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | -2 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 10 |
| 4 |
| +6 |
| 12 |
| 2.40 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 21 | 2.10 | 4 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 | 1.00 | 1 | 3 |
|---|