PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Indonesia - Liga 2
Final score Persipura Jayapura 1, RANS Nusantara 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Persipura Jayapura win 75%, Draw 17%, RANS Nusantara win 9%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchPersipura Jayapura host RANS Nusantara in the Liga 2, Indonesia.
Our model gives Persipura Jayapura a 75% chance of winning, a draw 17% and RANS Nusantara 9%.
The model expects Persipura Jayapura to score 2.5 goals and RANS Nusantara 0.9.
Persipura Jayapura have won 1 of their last 4 league matches; RANS Nusantara have won 2 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:22 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 4% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Persipura Jayapura 76% to win.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
No league table holds both teams for this fixture, so the competition context is shown instead.
Indonesia - Liga 2: Regular Season - 5.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2024 to February 2025.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Persipura Jayapura at home and RANS Nusantara away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Persipura Jayapura | RANS Nusantara |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.70 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
Points per game from the last 10 matches (no league table).
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 | 1.80 | 5 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 19 | 1.90 | 5 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 8 | 0.80 | 0 | 4 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 34 | -25 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 7 |