PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Poland - III Liga - Group 2
Final score Polonia Środa 2, Kluczevia Stargard 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Polonia Środa win 47%, Draw 21%, Kluczevia Stargard win 32%.
Polonia Środa host Kluczevia Stargard in the III Liga - Group 2, Poland.
Our model gives Polonia Środa a 47% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Kluczevia Stargard 32%.
The model expects Polonia Środa to score 2.2 goals and Kluczevia Stargard 1.8.
Polonia Środa have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Kluczevia Stargard have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 2, before kick-off.
Polonia Środa sit 1st with 27 points; Kluczevia Stargard sit 3rd with 19. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of Polonia Środa; Polonia Środa have played 2 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Polonia Środa at home and Kluczevia Stargard away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Polonia Środa at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Kluczevia Stargard away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Polonia Środa | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Points per game | 2.45 | 2.11 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 3.00 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wda Świecie | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 18 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 17 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Flota Świnoujście | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Grom Nowy Staw | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Gedania Gdansk | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Elana Toruń | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 10 |
| 16 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 5 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| +1 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|