PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Armenia - First League
Final score Pyunik II 1, Shirak II 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Pyunik II win 61%, Draw 20%, Shirak II win 19%.
Pyunik II host Shirak II in the First League, Armenia.
Our model gives Pyunik II a 61% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Shirak II 19%.
The model expects Pyunik II to score 2.3 goals and Shirak II 1.2.
Pyunik II have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Shirak II have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:32 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Pyunik II 63% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First League, before kick-off.
Pyunik II sit 7th with 11 points; Shirak II sit 10th with 7. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Pyunik II; Pyunik II have played 2 more.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Banants II | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: June 2012 to November 2025.
Average goals 3.1 (Pyunik II 1.8, Shirak II 1.3). Draws 8%, both teams scored 48%, over 2.5 goals 63%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Pyunik II at home and Shirak II away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 | 1.70 | 4 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 19 | 1.90 | 5 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Pyunik II | Shirak II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 10th |
| Points per game | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 2.30 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 | Andranik | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 16 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Banants II | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Noah II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Sardarapat 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 10 |
| -5 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 | 1.10 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 5 |
|---|