PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· China - Super League
Final score Qingdao Jonoon 0, Beijing Guoan 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Qingdao Jonoon win 23%, Draw 23%, Beijing Guoan win 53%.
Qingdao Jonoon host Beijing Guoan in the Super League, China.
Our model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 23% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Beijing Guoan 53%.
The model expects Qingdao Jonoon to score 1.3 goals and Beijing Guoan 1.9.
Qingdao Jonoon have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Beijing Guoan have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:34 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 8% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Qingdao Jonoon 23% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Super League, before kick-off.
Qingdao Jonoon sit 16th with 14 points; Beijing Guoan sit 3rd with 38. A gap of 35 in goal difference, in favour of Beijing Guoan.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2023 to May 2026.
Average goals 4.0 (Qingdao Jonoon 1.6, Beijing Guoan 2.4). Draws 29%, both teams scored 71%, over 2.5 goals 57%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Qingdao Jonoon at home and Beijing Guoan away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (8) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | 0 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Qingdao Jonoon | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 0.54 | 1.46 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 2.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.90 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 33 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 10 |
| 6 |
| +4 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 22 | 2.20 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 | 2.11 | 2 | 1 |
|---|