PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Myanmar - National League
Final score Sagaing United 1, GFA 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Sagaing United win 51%, Draw 20%, GFA win 29%.
Sagaing United host GFA in the National League, Myanmar.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Sagaing United a 51% chance of winning, a draw 20% and GFA 29%.
The model expects Sagaing United to score 2.3 goals and GFA 1.8.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:24 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 3% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Sagaing United 51% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League, before kick-off.
Sagaing United sit 5th with 3 points; GFA sit 12th with 0. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Sagaing United.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: February 2018 to December 2023.
Average goals 4.7 (Sagaing United 2.5, GFA 2.2). Draws 17%, both teams scored 100%, over 2.5 goals 100%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sagaing United at home and GFA away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sagaing United | GFA |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 12th |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.70 | 3.10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Sagaing United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ayeyawady United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Yangon United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | Shan United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 2 | 1 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 | 1.20 | 1 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (8) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 | 1.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 32 | -25 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| +1 |
| 4 |
| 5 | Sagaing United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ayeyawady United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | Thitsar Arman | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Yangon Royals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Myawady | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |