PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Japan - J3 League
Final score Sagamihara 3, Kamatamare Sanuki 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Sagamihara win 43%, Draw 29%, Kamatamare Sanuki win 28%.
Sagamihara host Kamatamare Sanuki in the J3 League, Japan.
Our model gives Sagamihara a 43% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Kamatamare Sanuki 28%.
The model expects Sagamihara to score 1.5 goals and Kamatamare Sanuki 1.1.
Sagamihara have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Kamatamare Sanuki have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:25 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 9% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Sagamihara 46% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the J3 League, before kick-off.
Sagamihara sit 6th with 15 points; Kamatamare Sanuki sit 19th with 5. A gap of 12 in goal difference, in favour of Sagamihara.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Osaka | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 20 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: June 2013 to September 2025.
Average goals 1.8 (Sagamihara 0.7, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.1). Draws 43%, both teams scored 43%, over 2.5 goals 21%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sagamihara at home and Kamatamare Sanuki away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 | 1.50 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 16 | 1.60 | 4 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sagamihara | Kamatamare Sanuki |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 19th |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.56 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| -17 |
| 5 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Osaka | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 9 | Kanazawa | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 5 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| -5 |
| 1 |
| 0.20 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 5 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | 0.90 | 1 | 3 |
|---|