PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
Final score Santa Amalia 1, Villafranca 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Santa Amalia win 36%, Draw 29%, Villafranca win 35%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchSanta Amalia host Villafranca in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14, Spain.
Our model gives Santa Amalia a 36% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Villafranca 35%.
The model expects Santa Amalia to score 1.2 goals and Villafranca 1.2.
Santa Amalia have won 1 of their last 4 league matches; Villafranca have won 1 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14, before kick-off.
Santa Amalia sit 9th with 6 points; Villafranca sit 15th with 3. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Santa Amalia.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Santa Amalia at home and Villafranca away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Santa Amalia | Villafranca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 15th |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 8 | Villanovense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Amalia | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Montijo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Quintana | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Villafranca | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Castuera | 4 | – | – |
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
Santa Amalia at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Villafranca away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +5 |
| 9 |
| 5 | Puebla Calzada | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Gévora | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Amalia | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Montijo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Cabeza Buey | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Jerez | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Quintana | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Villafranca | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 1 |