PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Brazil - Mineiro - 3
Final score Sao Joao del Rei 1, Paracatu 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Sao Joao del Rei win 38%, Draw 28%, Paracatu win 33%.
Sao Joao del Rei host Paracatu in the Mineiro - 3, Brazil.
Our model gives Sao Joao del Rei a 38% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Paracatu 33%.
The model expects Sao Joao del Rei to score 1.3 goals and Paracatu 1.2.
Sao Joao del Rei have won 1 of their last 3 league matches; Paracatu have won 3 of 3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Mineiro - 3, before kick-off.
Sao Joao del Rei sit 9th with 3 points; Paracatu sit 1st with 9. A gap of 9 in goal difference, in favour of Paracatu.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paracatu | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Nacional AC MG | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 9 |
| 8 | Araxá | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Sao Joao del Rei | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Funorte | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Sao Joao del Rei at home and Paracatu away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 |
Sao Joao del Rei at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Paracatu away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Sao Joao del Rei | Paracatu |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3) | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3) | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paracatu | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Nacional AC MG | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Betim 2 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Venda Nova | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 7 |
| 5 | Novo Esporte Clube | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter de Minas | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 3 |
| 7 | Nova Lavras | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Araxá | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Sao Joao del Rei | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Funorte | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Siderurgica | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 0 |
| 12 | Santarritense | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| +9 |
| 9 |
| 3.00 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|