PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Belgium - Jupiler Pro League
Final score SK Beveren 1, Lommel United 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: SK Beveren win 42%, Draw 27%, Lommel United win 30%.
SK Beveren host Lommel United in the Jupiler Pro League, Belgium.
Our model gives SK Beveren a 42% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Lommel United 30%.
The model expects SK Beveren to score 1.4 goals and Lommel United 1.2.
SK Beveren have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Lommel United have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Jupiler Pro League, before kick-off.
SK Beveren sit 10th with 9 points; Lommel United sit 12th with 8. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Lommel United.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Genk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | SK Beveren | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | St. Truiden | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then SK Beveren at home and Lommel United away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 | 1.50 | 3 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
SK Beveren at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Lommel United away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | SK Beveren | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 12th |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | Gent | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | Club Brugge KV | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 18 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Zulte Waregem | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | KVC Westerlo | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Genk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | SK Beveren | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | St. Truiden | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | KV Mechelen | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| -1 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | 3 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|