PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Paraguay - Division Intermedia
Final score SOL DE America 2, Sportivo Carapeguá 4.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: SOL DE America win 48%, Draw 29%, Sportivo Carapeguá win 23%.
SOL DE America host Sportivo Carapeguá in the Division Intermedia, Paraguay.
Our model gives SOL DE America a 48% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Sportivo Carapeguá 23%.
The model expects SOL DE America to score 1.4 goals and Sportivo Carapeguá 1.0.
SOL DE America have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Sportivo Carapeguá have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Division Intermedia, before kick-off.
SOL DE America sit 5th with 41 points; Sportivo Carapeguá sit 7th with 39. A gap of 15 in goal difference, in favour of SOL DE America.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 41 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 40 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 39 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 38 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then SOL DE America at home and Sportivo Carapeguá away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
SOL DE America at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sportivo Carapeguá away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | SOL DE America | Sportivo Carapeguá |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 7th |
| Points per game | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santani | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 54 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 53 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 50 |
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 41 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 40 |
| 7 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 39 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Atlético Tembetary | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Resistencia | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 35 |
| 11 | Fernando De La Mora | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 34 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiata | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 26 |
| 14 | Guairena FC | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 25 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 27 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 22 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| +4 |
| 11 |
| 2.20 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 | 1.83 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|