PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Switzerland - Challenge League
Final score Stade Nyonnais 2, FC Aarau 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Stade Nyonnais win 23%, Draw 23%, FC Aarau win 54%.
Stade Nyonnais host FC Aarau in the Challenge League, Switzerland.
Our model gives Stade Nyonnais a 23% chance of winning, a draw 23% and FC Aarau 54%.
The model expects Stade Nyonnais to score 1.3 goals and FC Aarau 1.9.
Stade Nyonnais have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; FC Aarau have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchContext onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Challenge League, before kick-off.
Stade Nyonnais sit 10th with 2 points; FC Aarau sit 5th with 12. A gap of 15 in goal difference, in favour of FC Aarau.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 2 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Stade Nyonnais at home and FC Aarau away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Stade Nyonnais at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
FC Aarau away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Stade Nyonnais | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 5th |
| Points per game | 0.22 | 1.33 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.83 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 18 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 10 |
| 9 |
| +1 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|