PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Botswana - Premier League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Tonota win 25%, Draw 34%, Sua Flamingoes win 41%.
Tonota host Sua Flamingoes in the Premier League, Botswana.
Our model gives Tonota a 25% chance of winning, a draw 34% and Sua Flamingoes 41%.
The model expects Tonota to score 0.8 goals and Sua Flamingoes 1.0.
Tonota have won 2 of their last 4 league matches; Sua Flamingoes have won 2 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Tonota sit 1st with 8 points; Sua Flamingoes sit 2nd with 8. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Tonota.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonota | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 2 | Sua Flamingoes | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Police XI | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tonota at home and Sua Flamingoes away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 |
Tonota at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sua Flamingoes away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Tonota | Sua Flamingoes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tonota | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 8 |
| 2 | Sua Flamingoes | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Police XI | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Nico United | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | TAFIC | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Enesia | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Township Rollers | 2 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 4 |
| 9 | BDF XI | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Centre Chiefs | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gaborone United | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Orapa United | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Morupule Wanderers | 3 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Matebele | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 0 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| +2 |
| 8 |
| 2.00 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 8 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|