PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Ireland - First Division
Final score UCD 1, Longford Town 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: UCD win 58%, Draw 23%, Longford Town win 19%.
UCD host Longford Town in the First Division, Ireland.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives UCD a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Longford Town 19%.
The model expects UCD to score 1.9 goals and Longford Town 1.1.
UCD have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Longford Town have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First Division, before kick-off.
UCD sit 3rd with 52 points; Longford Town sit 5th with 48. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of UCD.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then UCD at home and Longford Town away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | UCD | Longford Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Points per game | 1.53 | 1.41 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 53 |
| 3 | UCD | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 52 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 49 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 48 |
| 6 | Kerry | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 48 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +37 | 71 |
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 53 |
| 3 | UCD | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 52 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 49 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 48 |
| 6 | Kerry | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 48 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 2 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 0 |
UCD at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Longford Town away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| 7 | Athlone Town | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 41 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -19 | 36 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -37 | 25 |