PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Portugal - Liga 3
Final score União Santarém 3, Lusitano Évora 1911 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: União Santarém win 33%, Draw 32%, Lusitano Évora 1911 win 35%.
União Santarém host Lusitano Évora 1911 in the Liga 3, Portugal.
Our model gives União Santarém a 33% chance of winning, a draw 32% and Lusitano Évora 1911 35%.
The model expects União Santarém to score 1.0 goals and Lusitano Évora 1911 1.0.
União Santarém have won 1 of their last 5 league matches; Lusitano Évora 1911 have won 1 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga 3, before kick-off.
União Santarém sit 17th with 4 points; Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 14th with 5. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Lusitano Évora 1911.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guimaraes B | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Covilha | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Trofense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | União Santarém | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | São João Ver | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then União Santarém at home and Lusitano Évora 1911 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 3 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
União Santarém at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Lusitano Évora 1911 away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | União Santarém | Lusitano Évora 1911 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 14th |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 5 and 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 5 and 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 3 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Paredes | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético CP | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Varzim | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Fafe | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 8 |
| 7 | Vianense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Oliveirense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Mafra | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | Louletano | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Caldas | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Leça | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Guimaraes B | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Covilha | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Trofense | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | União Santarém | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | São João Ver | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| -1 |
| 5 |
| 1.00 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|