PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Georgia - Liga 3
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Varketili win 76%, Draw 17%, Dinamo Tbilisi II win 7%.
Varketili host Dinamo Tbilisi II in the Liga 3, Georgia.
Our model gives Varketili a 76% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Dinamo Tbilisi II 7%.
The model expects Varketili to score 2.4 goals and Dinamo Tbilisi II 0.8.
Varketili have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Dinamo Tbilisi II have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga 3, before kick-off.
Varketili sit 2nd with 49 points; Dinamo Tbilisi II sit 9th with 32. A gap of 36 in goal difference, in favour of Varketili.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 41 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Varketili at home and Dinamo Tbilisi II away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 9 | 1.50 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Varketili at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Dinamo Tbilisi II away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Varketili | Dinamo Tbilisi II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 9th |
| Points per game | 2.23 | 1.45 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 30 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 39 |
| 5 | WIT Georgia | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 38 |
| 6 | Gonio | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 34 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -24 | 13 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -41 | 13 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | -38 | 11 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 7 |
| +2 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 | 1.83 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 |
|---|