PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Bosnia - Premijer Liga
Final score Velež 0, Siroki Brijeg 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Velež win 55%, Draw 27%, Siroki Brijeg win 18%.
Velež host Siroki Brijeg in the Premijer Liga, Bosnia.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model gives Velež a 55% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Siroki Brijeg 18%.
The model expects Velež to score 1.6 goals and Siroki Brijeg 0.9.
Velež have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Siroki Brijeg have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premijer Liga, before kick-off.
Velež sit 9th with 7 points; Siroki Brijeg sit 5th with 9. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Siroki Brijeg.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Velež at home and Siroki Brijeg away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Velež | Siroki Brijeg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 5th |
| Points per game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
Velež at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Siroki Brijeg away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 4 |