PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Poland - III Liga - Group 4
Final score Wiślanie Jaśkowice 4, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Wiślanie Jaśkowice win 40%, Draw 28%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg win 32%.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice host Siarka Tarnobrzeg in the III Liga - Group 4, Poland.
Our model gives Wiślanie Jaśkowice a 40% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32%.
The model expects Wiślanie Jaśkowice to score 1.4 goals and Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.2.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Siarka Tarnobrzeg have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 4, before kick-off.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice sit 7th with 17 points; Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 9th with 14. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Wiślanie Jaśkowice.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jarosław | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home and Siarka Tarnobrzeg away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Wiślanie Jaśkowice at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 9th |
| Points per game | 1.55 | 1.27 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 22 |
| 3 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 20 |
| 6 | Jarosław | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 7 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | 3 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|